Strangling The Dragon’s Neck Before It Burns Us All
Should India Reconsider Its ‘One China Policy’?
The two giants earlier known but undermined by the world had started a new era
altogether by the beginning of 1950s. Their relationship is what we might call “two tigers in one den” – something
that is possible only metaphorically. Since their birth, India and China have shared a unique relationship, along with
borders and disputed land, envy and betrayals, expansionism and geopolitics. After the Chinese Civil War in 1949,
the Kuomintang (KMT) or the nationalists, under Chiang Kai Shek, fled to Taiwan and formed the Republic of
China (ROC) i.e. a government in exile, which the western world accepted it as the legitimate Chinese Government
denying the existence of a communist China. China, through its One China Policy, asserted that the countries
seeking for bilateral relations with it must accept that there exists only One China – The People’s Republic of China.
After Vietnam War and Sino-Soviet split, the US was forced to normalize relations with the "Communist" China. In
1972, the then POTUS Richard Nixon accepted the 'One China Policy' and in 1979, under Jimmy Carter, the USA
broke off all ties with the ROC(Taiwan). This led to the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan in the international fora.
Robert Putnam’s ‘Two-Level Game Theory’ focuses on diplomatic negotiations on
two levels: 1) Intra-national (taking domestic interests into consideration) and 2) International. In the autumn of
1962, China declared war on India, owing to two main factors – Mao’s failed initiative ‘The Great Leap Forward’
and the Cuban missile crisis. The 1962 war took place so that Mao would be able to position himself as a strong
leader having defeated India and silencing it for more than a decade, and the backdrop of Cuban missile crisis made
sure that the global attention would not shift to the Sino-Indian friction. The recent clashes at the Line of Actual
Control (LAC) and especially at the Galwan Valley, China’s dominance in the South China Sea, its encirclement
through approaches like the String of Pearls theory, its expansionist and debt trap approach through Silk Route, BRI,
CPEC, OBOR, etc only points the world in the direction of an emerging Global Numero Uno. What the Chinese
President calls the “China Dream” subtly hints at its ambition of becoming the global hegemony reverting the
humiliation which it faced for over a century – its aspiration of becoming the Dragon capable of burning down the
whole world.
Both India and China began on a note of economic and social adversary. But through
Deng Xiaoping’s vision of economic growth with fast growing manufacture based open economy with isolated
internal system, seven decades later, China is the largest economy (in terms of PPP). With economic growth came
increased military spending and increased influence all around the world. Today, when we look back, we scourge
for the answers for our lopsided development, weak political will, suppressed military and inadequate diplomatic
prowess - The answers of which lie in the very foundations of India’s strategic and foundational setting. But the $14
trillion Chinese economy, with the much sought after influence, gives it huge advantage during any diplomatic talks.
Even today China is continuously changing from ‘Investment to Consumption’, i.e. from “dirty” (closing of coal
mines) to “clean”, from ‘Make in China’ to ‘Innovate in China’, basically China is transitioning from present to
futuristic market forms. The most important of all the steps towards fulfilling the Chinese dream is the Belt and
Road Initiative. It is a strategic, geopolitical economic plan - to convert production centres and to put its idle
population to work, to improve communication with the markets in China and the world. The BRI considered as a
trans-continental passage - is not just an economic project. It is the way for China towards world dominance. 89
percent of the infrastructure contracts are given only to Chinese contractors or companies, but China persuades
everyone, one way or the other (using its $14 trillion economy) to eventually fall in line and accept the terms. It has
no regard for creating employment opportunities for the local population and it changes the native status quo as if it
owns the country and its people. China has evolved from a country struggling to feed its population to asserting
dominance with a whip.
China disregards the McMohan Line, claiming parts of India (Aksai Chin,
Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh) as its own. China has border disputes with Bhutan. It claims the Japanese
Senkaku Islands as its own territory. It has already declared that the islands in the South China Sea belong to China
based on the nine-dash line and is thrashing the opinions of the countries like Australia and Philippines which call
upon the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS) and the Sea Lines of
Communication(SLOC). And there is hardly any neighbour with whom China does not have border or maritime
disputes. The way it has been suppressing the pro-democracy protests in Hong-Kong proves that China considers
itself as the only existent world power. The brutal killings of the opponents and suppressing the minority opinions
only pushes us to think about how the Dragon will burn us all if we are unable to strangle its neck. China has
encircled India through its String of Pearls theory. But through the veil of military and economic relations, China
has already prepared to throttle India - Be it the CPEC and Gwadar Port(Pakistan), Hambantota Port(Sri Lanka),
Chittagong Port(Bangladesh), Djibouti, Maldives, Seychelles and other islands in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR),
China has made sure that India has no front left to be safe. In a counter-action, India has started working on the
‘Necklace of Diamonds’ strategy or the counter-encirclement strategy. But India alone cannot fight off an aggressive
country like China which has no regard or respect for even its own people.
The aggression that China is moving with cannot be differentiated from its
leadership. The monopoly of power puts the Chinese President Xi Jinping in a very tough spot. He needs to prove
himself as “the strong leader" time and again in order to remain in power comfortably. The trade war with the USA
and the handling of COVID-19 pandemic has dented the image of both, the Communist Party of China and Xi
Jinping. With all these challenges Xi is in the same position as Mao Zedong was during the great Chinese famine.
China continuously opposes India in the United Nations and claims Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet, which in turn
leads to military stand offs. The recent border dispute between India and China in Ladakh over Galwan Valley and
Pangong lake is just the result of all of this. The Communist Party of China needs some unrest in the region to keep
the nationalist sentiment high among the people.
There’s a strong chance of China repeating the 1962 horrors, given its tense
internal situation with Xi’s position as a leader and Hong Kong unrest - And all this while the globe is focusing on
tackling a deadly pandemic allegedly spread by China. This puts Xi in a difficult position than Mao was in one. But
then, the dynamics of the wars have also changed. Wars today are not affordable for anyone. Now wars are not just
fought on the battlefields with guns and tanks. Every device, every market and every household has turned into
battlefields. This is an era of “Silent Wars”. And People's Republic of China, who has been playing a psychological
war for decades, knows this very well.
As Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw used to say “If you must be a bloody
fool, be one quickly; the act of omission is worse than the act of commission.” The umbrella movement in Hong
Kong has laid seeds of pro-democracy in China and President Trump’s will against the One China Policy is visible
when USA is pushing for the ROC's place in the World Health Assembly. India should blow the hammer while the
metal is hot. To grab the bull by its horn, India must retaliate on every front, be it the silent war or a diplomatic
standoff. The silent war is fought by the masses, while India needs Hong Kong and Taiwan for a diplomatic
standoff. It is high time that we change the discourse of our foreign policy towards China. It is high time that we put
all our cards on the table – especially the Tibet and Taiwan cards. It is high time that we, the largest democracy in
the world, lend a supporting hand to the protesters in Hong Kong. It is high time that we set our foot on an offensive
front in the war China prefers the most –Psychological War. Only by counter-pressurizing China can we dismiss
what our political and bureaucratic class call as an expansionist threat. Something that can be termed as naïve only
until the PLA comes knocking at our door.
References :
• Robert Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706785
• Bertil Lintner, China’s India War: Collision Course on the Roof of the World
• Lt. Gen. Pravin Bakshi(Retd), National Seminar on Sino-Indian Relations, March 03, 2020
• Namrata Hasija, National Seminar on Sino-Indian Relations, March 03, 2020
• https://idsa.in/
• https://orf.org/
• https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/calls-for-india-to-play-the-taiwan-card-grow-louder/
• https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38285354
• https://indianexpress.com/article/india/depsang-plains-pangong-tso-india-china-standoff-6511198/
• https://indianexpress.com/article/india/chinese-order-of-battle-in-aksai-chin-what-are-we-up-against6500207/
• https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-one-who-reached-out-to-china/article24918999.ece
• https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-xi-resurrects-mao-five-fingers-strategy-by-brahmachellaney-2020-07
Sharvari Deshpande - T.Y.B.A.
Santosh Patil - T.Y.B.A.
The above article has been selected as one of the articles to be published in the magazine titled 'Vichar Manthan' ( July Edition) for 12th National Article Writing Competition.
